Bold studies

narrative fallacy

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Transclude of narrative-fallacy-Anki

This page is not original work, but at least partly the result of using an LLM (edited)

The opinions on LLMs are divided. I see them as a tool, and as long as people are open on what is theirs, and what is not I have no problem with it.

This page is mainly written for the Anki card it is connected to.

Narrative Fallacy

The narrative fallacy refers to the tendency of humans to construct stories or coherent narratives to explain complex, uncertain, or random events. These narratives often emphasize cause-and-effect relationships, even when there is insufficient evidence to support such connections. This fallacy can lead us to misinterpret information, overlook randomness, and oversimplify reality.

Key Aspects:

  • Causality where none exists: We often link events in a cause-effect relationship even if the connection is coincidental.
  • Hindsight bias: After something has happened, we construct stories that make the outcome seem inevitable or predictable.
  • Coherence over accuracy: We favor stories that are emotionally satisfying or logically smooth, even if they distort the truth.

Origin and Popularization:

The term was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (2007). He describes how humans are prone to creating stories that make sense of unpredictable events, often missing the role of randomness and uncertainty.

“The narrative fallacy addresses our limited ability to look at sequences of facts without weaving an explanation into them.”
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan

Examples:

  1. Stock Market: Saying a stock fell because of “investor fear over inflation” often retrofits a story to a complex system with many variables.
  2. Historical Events: Attributing the fall of empires to a single leader’s flaws rather than a web of political, economic, and environmental factors.
  3. Personal Success Stories: Claiming someone succeeded purely due to hard work while ignoring luck, privilege, and timing.

Sources:

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